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View Poll Results: Do you believe man is the major contributer to climate change?
Yes 13 43.33%
No 17 56.67%
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  #1  
Old 16-09-2013, 07:26 AM
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Default Climate - The Backpedalling Begins, Stops and Restarts

Quote:
THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest assessment reportedly admits its computer drastically overestimated rising temperatures, and over the past 60 years the world has in fact been warming at half the rate claimed in the previous IPCC report in 2007.

More importantly, according to reports in British and US media, the draft report appears to suggest global temperatures were less sensitive to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide than was previously thought.

The 2007 assessment report said the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade, but according to Britain's The Daily Mail the draft update report says the true figure since 1951 has been 0.12C.

Last week, the IPCC was forced to deny it was locked in crisis talks as reports intensified that scientists were preparing to revise down the speed at which climate change is happening and its likely impact.
Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

They forgot to mention that the world hasn't warmed in the last 17 years.

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online
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  #2  
Old 16-09-2013, 09:43 AM
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I knew this all along. Never needed any goddam 'scientist' trying to bullsh*t me otherwise.

Simple observation of history and the records of past times were enough for me. So, sometimes it rains and sometimes it snows, even gets hot now and then. It's the weather. Happens all the time.

I haven't forgotten the 'Global Warming' conference in Sweden either. Worst Winter I living memory, even the taxi drivers were giving the delegates rings about the 'warming.' So what did they do? They changed the spiel from 'warming' to 'climate change ... damned frauds.

They can shove their carbon tax. Also, stop giving 'grants' for 'research' into climate change, then all the BS will stop.

I don't need the NBN either, or Gonski, or Rolls-Royces for cripples. (Just added them b'cos it's Monday and raining and I'm feeling bastardly.)
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Old 16-09-2013, 10:08 AM
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Backpedalling by who? The Australian and The Daily Mail have always rubbished AGW reports.

Have you looked at the source data that these tabloids are basing their claims on, Ray? It's easy to find, but let me help you:

The recent pause in warming - Met Office

From that page:

The Met Office Hadley Centre has written three reports that address the recent pause in global warming and seek to answer the following questions:

What have been the recent trends in other indicators of climate over this period?
What are the potential drivers of the current pause?
How does the recent pause affect our projections of future climate?

The first paper shows that a wide range of observed climate indicators continue to show changes that are consistent with a globally warming world, and our understanding of how the climate system works.

The second suggests that it is not possible to explain the recent lack of surface warming solely by reductions in the total energy received by the planet, i.e. the balance between the total solar energy entering the system and the thermal energy leaving it. Changes in the exchange of heat between the upper and deep ocean appear to have caused at least part of the pause in surface warming, and observations suggest that the Pacific Ocean may play a key role.

The final paper shows that the recent pause in global surface temperature rise does not materially alter the risks of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century. Nor does it invalidate the fundamental physics of global warming, the scientific basis of climate models and their estimates of climate sensitivity.


Links to each of the three papers are below (links disabled as they are for pdf docs).

Observing changes in the climate system Paper 1: Observing changes in the climate system (PDF, 2 MB)

Recent pause in global warming Paper 2: Recent pause in global warming (PDF, 1 MB)

Implications for projections Paper 3: Implications for projections (PDF, 663 kB)

Last Updated: 13 August 2013
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  #4  
Old 16-09-2013, 10:10 AM
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Here's another one for you:

expert reaction to story that Met Office data shows global warming has stopped | Science Media Centre

Dr Richard Allan, Reader in Climate Science at the University of Reading, said:

“Global warming is not ‘at a standstill’ but does seem to have slowed down since 2000 in comparison to the rapid warming of the world since the 1970s.

“In fact, consistent with rising greenhouse gases, heat is continuing to build up beneath the ocean surface:

Warming over the last decade hidden below ocean surface

“This indicates that changes in ocean circulation are in part responsible for the recent slower rate of surface warming. The way the ocean distributes the extra energy trapped by rising greenhouse gases is critical in determining the new Met Office forecasts of global surface temperature over the coming decade and is an area of active research.

“These decadal forecasts are very much experimental – they are at the cutting edge of the science and are technically very challenging. The Met Office are being open and transparent by making the forecasts available to allow a proper validation to occur. The Met Office is one of about 10 groups performing these type of forecasts worldwide and all predict a warming over the coming decade.

“Nothing in their data leads me to think that global warming due to human influence has stopped, or is irrelevant. It hasn’t, and it isn’t.”
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Old 16-09-2013, 10:11 AM
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Prof Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at University College London, said:

“I despair of the way data such as this is translated as ‘global warming has stopped’! Global mean temperatures – whether measured or predicted – are not the issue. What matters is the energy balance of the planet and the changes that an energy imbalance will drive in the climate system – as well as the consequences for humans.

“90% of the energy imbalance enters the ocean and is not visible to the global mean surface temperature value. The continuing rise in sea level demonstrates ongoing energy accumulation in the ocean (as well as a contribution from melting land ice).
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  #6  
Old 16-09-2013, 10:12 AM
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Clearly there is a yawning chasm between 'science' and 'opinion'... and between the ears of climate change deniers.
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  #7  
Old 16-09-2013, 10:37 AM
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Oh this again?

Climate Graphics by Skeptical Science: The Escalator
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Old 16-09-2013, 10:49 AM
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If you can't believe the IPCC, who can you believe?
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Old 16-09-2013, 10:53 AM
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Just to put the image inline. Ray's positing climate change isn't happening due to the last decade or so. Yer seems legit.

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Old 16-09-2013, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray! View Post
If you can't believe the IPCC, who can you believe?
Well, clearly you believe Tony "Climate change is crap" Abbott. He goes out in the sun regularly, so surely he knows what he's talking about?

I am an expert on Vegemite; I put it on toast every second day or so.
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Old 16-09-2013, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by ferretz View Post
Just to put the image inline. Ray's positing climate change isn't happening due to the last decade or so. Yer seems legit.

Yes, of course. Five stable periods in 40 years. Pyrrihic victory to the climate change denial team! And can someone please make that nasty red line go away, it's giving me wind
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  #12  
Old 16-09-2013, 11:18 AM
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Sorry guys, but this revision is directly from the Climate Gods of the IPCC. You're now disputing those wise sages who the world has been following for decades. Enjoy another failure of the Left.
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Old 16-09-2013, 11:37 AM
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“Nothing in their data leads me to think that global warming due to human influence has stopped, or is irrelevant. It hasn’t, and it isn’t.”
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'Human influence' is one of the things I find hard to agree with. For instance, some warming has been detected on Jupiter (900 million kilometres away) ... human influence? Doubt it.

Here is (yet) another view. Confusing isn't it Dutchy?

DailyTech - Global Warming on Mars -- and Jupiter, Pluto, Neptune
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Old 16-09-2013, 11:42 AM
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No Ray, what we are doing is clearly showing the difference between science and opinion.

The IPCC released data showing updates relative to predictions. The model is adjusted. The trend continues to show increasing overall temperature.
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Old 16-09-2013, 11:58 AM
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And downgrading of the predictions keeps on downgrading. They'd be better off reading tea leaves or chicken bones. But there's no government funding in that.
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Old 16-09-2013, 12:52 PM
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Ray, you do understand that if the current mean average temp was 20 degrees, the prediction was 30 degrees in x years, and a revision lowered that prediction to 25 degrees in x years - the trend would still be upwards? It really doesn't seem that hard to grasp...
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Old 16-09-2013, 01:01 PM
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So you firmly believe that we need:

- a carbon tax
- taxpayer subsidy of solar and wind power
- shutdown of coal fired power stations
- no nuclear
- no new hydro-electric power
- fuel to be included in the carbon tax
- and whatever else can be devised
- more taxpayer money spent on global warming scientists
- more taxpayer money spent on the ARC to hand out to artists examining the effects of climate change etc
- all building permits for waterfront housing to be banned etc

If you believe that the world is warming catastrophically, then you must believe that all of the above is absolutely essential.
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Old 16-09-2013, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray! View Post
So you firmly believe that we need:

- a carbon tax
- taxpayer subsidy of solar and wind power
- shutdown of coal fired power stations
- no nuclear
- no new hydro-electric power
- fuel to be included in the carbon tax
- and whatever else can be devised
- more taxpayer money spent on global warming scientists
- more taxpayer money spent on the ARC to hand out to artists examining the effects of climate change etc
- all building permits for waterfront housing to be banned etc

If you believe that the world is warming catastrophically, then you must believe that all of the above is absolutely essential.
As usual you are factually incorrect. None of that flows from anything to do with accepting the science.
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Old 16-09-2013, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ferretz View Post
As usual you are factually incorrect. None of that flows from anything to do with accepting the science.
So you don't believe that the world is warming catastrophically and so we don't need all of these pointless gestures. Good!
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Old 16-09-2013, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray! View Post
So you don't believe that the world is warming catastrophically and so we don't need all of these pointless gestures. Good!
I sure do accept the science. Just pointing out there is no actual basis in reality for attaching your own paranoid lefty green conspiracy nonsense to the end of it.
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