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The Googlest, Apparently!
nissan patrol
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Do people not realise how many people die each year from the flu? Just in Australia alone we have a few thousand deaths annually. At most what, maybe 1000 people worldwide will die from this particular strain :rolleyes:
Not as cut and dried as that.

Flu season is short lived, usually just seasonal (but can spread as the seasons develop in the different hemispheres).

People often mistake the flu for a bad cold, since flu symptoms mimic a cold, and do nothing about it. When you catch the flu, you might experience coughing, sneezing, runny nose, hoarse voice, and a sore throat, all the same as a cold.

The spanish flu pandemic of 1915 - 1919 will not repeat due to the fact we have readily available vaccinations which would drastically reduce the spread and dead. It did not hit Australia till 1919 due to the seasonal aspect.

Further, we had huge amounts of people already in a weakened state with low immune resistance due to WWI and rationing.

That is why the the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968 did not reach the same levels of the Spanish Flu, people were more resilient and a vaccination became available at it's peak (the same broad spectrum one we use today).

We have no vaccine for coraona.

Also, influenza deaths have tended to be more common in children younger than 5 and in adults older than 50, this one shows no age characteristic or profile.

And on top of that, according to WHO, 25 per cent of people infected so far are getting severe illness and require hospitalisation. This is higher than run of the mill influenza (flu) and much higher than the common cold, hence the international concern.

You are not comparing apples with apples.
 

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Also, influenza deaths have tended to be more common in children younger than 5 and in adults older than 50, this one shows no age characteristic or profile.
The profile looks very much the same to me. From the latest data I've seen from a few sources the youngest death to date is 37, with the rest all above 48 heavily weighted to the over 70 end.
 

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Triton n Lovin it.
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Do people not realise how many people die each year from the flu? Just in Australia alone we have a few thousand deaths annually. At most what, maybe 1000 people worldwide will die from this particular strain :rolleyes:
There is no vac for it and it is spreading quicker than the flu, along with the fact that some don't show outward symptoms.

Foo
 

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The Googlest, Apparently!
nissan patrol
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The profile looks very much the same to me. From the latest data I've seen from a few sources the youngest death to date is 37, with the rest all above 48 heavily weighted to the over 70 end.
Early days yet.

The median age of infection outside of china is 45, and that is dropping day to day.

Also, besides the old (who are vulnerable to anything anyway), people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus. And that encompasses a lot of people of all ages.

Quote; SARS (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003): was also a coronavirus that originated from China, it spread to 29 countries with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths (with a fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, the Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus. One day later,yesterday, coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide representing the final SARS count in 2003.

If it continues to spread at the rate it is, and only a quarter the world population gets it a 9.6% fatality rate is a little over 168 million people dead ...

The fatality rate of the flu is 0.2% ...

Does the word virulent mean anything to you?

You are still not comparing apples with apples.
 

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'00TD42T
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Probably less than SARS according to this microbiologist

The case fatality for SARS, during its eight months of circulation, was just under 10%.

Is the current epidemic more similar in severity and transmissibility to the SARS outbreak or the 2009 flu pandemic? I am a professor of biology who studies the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease, and in my view, in late January 2020, we do not yet have enough solid evidence to answer this question. I am optimistic that the scientific community’s sharing ethos and rapid data analytics that we have seen over the past two weeks will soon generate the needed data.

As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases.

These numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%.

During these early stages of the outbreak investigation, it is difficult to estimate the lethality, or deadliness, of this new virus.


A bit more info.




I am not at work and haven't taken a great deal of interest.
 

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GUII ZD30DI Wgn
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Personally I don't fear it being a massive world issue, but if it is maybe that is what the world needs to combat climate change, I did allude to human overpopulation as an issue a while back.
 

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The Googlest, Apparently!
nissan patrol
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Probably less than SARS according to this microbiologist

The case fatality for SARS, during its eight months of circulation, was just under 10%.

Is the current epidemic more similar in severity and transmissibility to the SARS outbreak or the 2009 flu pandemic? I am a professor of biology who studies the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease, and in my view, in late January 2020, we do not yet have enough solid evidence to answer this question. I am optimistic that the scientific community’s sharing ethos and rapid data analytics that we have seen over the past two weeks will soon generate the needed data.

As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases.

These numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%.

During these early stages of the outbreak investigation, it is difficult to estimate the lethality, or deadliness, of this new virus.


A bit more info.




I am not at work and haven't taken a great deal of interest.
Your link is assuming "what if's". In that what if it is less than SARS.

Well, here's another what if. What if it turns our to be a lot worse than SARS.

As he mentions, there is no data to formulate any definate numbers as yet, so he is just assuming.

What if's are like arse holes, all they are good for is shyte.

If they want to be ahead of this the powers that be must assume the worst and hope for the best or millions could die from what if inaction ...
 

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'00TD42T
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If you read the link he quotes fatality rates so far which are substantially less.
He is a microbiologist.
This is in his area of expertise.

The authorities are acting.
He is not advocating inaction but giving an objective analysis on the evidence at hand.
 

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Personally I don't fear it being a massive world issue, but if it is maybe that is what the world needs to combat climate change, I did allude to human overpopulation as an issue a while back.
I've been thinking along these lines all morning. Maybe it's time we sat back and did nothing for a change....
Take time off from doing everything, enjoy time with family/friends and if your numbers up it's up.

Some of the chit we spend our lives trying to achieve/accumulate and for what. I've been looking at my own life today and realised I spend a lot of time on here only trying to learn how to make my car go faster! Great help to civilisation I am
 

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Triton n Lovin it.
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I've been thinking along these lines all morning. Maybe it's time we sat back and did nothing for a change....
Take time off from doing everything, enjoy time with family/friends and if your numbers up it's up.

Some of the chit we spend our lives trying to achieve/accumulate and for what. I've been looking at my own life today and realised I spend a lot of time on here only trying to learn how to make my car go faster! Great help to civilisation I am
🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣

Foo
 

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The Googlest, Apparently!
nissan patrol
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If you read the link he quotes fatality rates so far which are substantially less.
He is a microbiologist.
This is in his area of expertise.

The authorities are acting.
He is not advocating inaction but giving an objective analysis on the evidence at hand.
If YOU read his statements posted you will see this ...

Is the current epidemic more similar in severity and transmissibility to the SARS outbreak or the 2009 flu pandemic? I am a professor of biology who studies the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease, and in my view, in late January 2020, we do not yet have enough solid evidence to answer this question. I am optimistic that the scientific community’s sharing ethos and rapid data analytics that we have seen over the past two weeks will soon generate the needed data.

Further, quote; As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases.
End

As of this morning, three days later, there are 213 deaths and 9816 reported cases.

Exponential anyone???

It has already over taken the total of reported SARS cases world wide, which lasted 15 months, in just one country in just one month ...

His comments are already out of date and lack any validity to what is going on now.
 

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'00TD42T
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If YOU read his statements posted you will see this ...

Is the current epidemic more similar in severity and transmissibility to the SARS outbreak or the 2009 flu pandemic? I am a professor of biology who studies the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease, and in my view, in late January 2020, we do not yet have enough solid evidence to answer this question. I am optimistic that the scientific community’s sharing ethos and rapid data analytics that we have seen over the past two weeks will soon generate the needed data.

Further, quote; As with the 2009 pandemic, initial reports from Wuhan described small numbers of both deaths and cases. On January 20, there were six deaths out of 282 confirmed cases. By January 28, there were 106 deaths from about 4,500 confirmed cases.
End

As of this morning, three days later, there are 213 deaths and 9816 reported cases.

Exponential anyone???

It has already over taken the total of reported SARS cases world wide, which lasted 15 months, in just one country in just one month ...

His comments are already out of date and lack any validity to what is going on now.
Again.


These numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%.

And this


At this moment, 2019-nCoV looks to me like its severity and transmission profile is somewhere between SARS and the 2009 H1N1 influenza.

If this is accurate, airport screening, case isolation, contact tracing and social distancing efforts may be enough in some cities to delay or fend off the arriving stream of new cases. In the next month or two, we will see how easily newly introduced seed cases are able to establish local epidemics outside the Chinese mainland.


Again he is a microbiologist not a journalist.
I see no reason too, nor am I qualified, to contradict him.
 

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The death toll stands at 213 inside China and confirmed infections are 9,096

Possible infections are at 12,167 inside China with recoveries listed as 163


With 9096 confirmed infections the death rate is 2.34%
As stated the infection number will almost certainly be larger than that so percentage lower.


I still struggle to see evidence of it being a mass killer here.
Given the evidence so far is that SARS was more dangerous.


SARS came to the world’s attention in early 2003 when WHO declared a global public health alert in response to a severe respiratory illness due to an unidentified communicable pathogen.

The pathogen emerged out of southern China, creating a local outbreak of atypical pneumonia. Subsequent infection of international travellers resulted in the importation of possible SARS cases to 29 other countries around the world. Hong Kong, Hanoi, Singapore and Toronto received such infected travellers early in the outbreak, and further transmission within these cities resulted in local outbreaks, affecting many hundreds of people.

The overall case-fatality rate was approximately 10 per cent and was highest (> 50 per cent) in those over 60 years of age. A characteristic feature of the SARS outbreak was its unprecedented degree of nosocomial spread, which resulted in 21 per cent of all cases involving healthcare workers. This has resulted in a requirement for heathcare staff to adopt a new standard of infection control and personal protection.

WHO declared the outbreak interrupted on 5 July 2003, at which time there had been more than 8,400 cases and approximately 900 deaths. Mainland China reported more than 5,300 cases and 349 deaths. Australia had a single confirmed case of SARS, who had visited New South Wales before the global alert and was detected in retrospect by authorities in her home country. She did not transmit the illness to any of her close contacts.


Anyway back to work in a couple of weeks. I'll hear more then.
 

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GUII ZD30DI Wgn
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I've been thinking along these lines all morning. Maybe it's time we sat back and did nothing for a change....
Take time off from doing everything, enjoy time with family/friends and if your numbers up it's up.

Some of the chit we spend our lives trying to achieve/accumulate and for what. I've been looking at my own life today and realised I spend a lot of time on here only trying to learn how to make my car go faster! Great help to civilisation I am
I've spent a good 5 hours today going through things with Canada with a massive time difference into the bargain and for what???? I'm sure there are much more sanity improving things I could be doing.

Jane Goodall made some very good points on overpopulation at the Davos Conference. I'm with her.
 

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The Googlest, Apparently!
nissan patrol
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The death toll stands at 213 inside China and confirmed infections are 9,096

Possible infections are at 12,167 inside China with recoveries listed as 163


With 9096 confirmed infections the death rate is 2.34%
As stated the infection number will almost certainly be larger than that so percentage lower.


I still struggle to see evidence of it being a mass killer here.
Given the evidence so far is that SARS was more dangerous.


SARS came to the world’s attention in early 2003 when WHO declared a global public health alert in response to a severe respiratory illness due to an unidentified communicable pathogen.

The pathogen emerged out of southern China, creating a local outbreak of atypical pneumonia. Subsequent infection of international travellers resulted in the importation of possible SARS cases to 29 other countries around the world. Hong Kong, Hanoi, Singapore and Toronto received such infected travellers early in the outbreak, and further transmission within these cities resulted in local outbreaks, affecting many hundreds of people.

The overall case-fatality rate was approximately 10 per cent and was highest (> 50 per cent) in those over 60 years of age. A characteristic feature of the SARS outbreak was its unprecedented degree of nosocomial spread, which resulted in 21 per cent of all cases involving healthcare workers. This has resulted in a requirement for heathcare staff to adopt a new standard of infection control and personal protection.

WHO declared the outbreak interrupted on 5 July 2003, at which time there had been more than 8,400 cases and approximately 900 deaths. Mainland China reported more than 5,300 cases and 349 deaths. Australia had a single confirmed case of SARS, who had visited New South Wales before the global alert and was detected in retrospect by authorities in her home country. She did not transmit the illness to any of her close contacts.


Anyway back to work in a couple of weeks. I'll hear more then.
I have not stated it would be a mass killer.

Just that it has the potential. It is virulent, and is spreading exponentially when compared to SARS, MERS etc.

China has been put into isolation by everyone, and "hopefully" that will be enough to contain it.

However, with a country of 1.4 billion superstitious and (mostly) uneducated people who think that a bit of ground up rhino horn is going make them into sexual supermen a majority are likely to stampede.

We already see pictures of deserted cities (probably why china is trying to lock them down completely), so if they start to run towards their 13,000km borders with other very populous countries (india etc) the situation has a "potential" to become a mass killer of pandemic proportions.

Russia understands this, which is why that (and nearly all other bordering countries) have shut down the major crossings. But nothing is going to stop many millions rushing them if they panic.
 

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I Have Imaginary Friends
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Discussion Starter #36

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Triton n Lovin it.
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After Monday and Tuesday, even the calender says W
nissan
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Thats what happens when you get the shlt punched out of you to many times.
His brain would look like a dropped pie.
 

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TD42 GQ
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So, if this Coronavirus results in 168 million deaths, or even, say, 500 million deaths, it'll hardly put a dent in the human population. Certainly won't solve our population vs resources issues.
 
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