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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hey I'm thinking of investing a large amount of time and money into developing my 4x4 diesel off road house machine, which I will live in for foreseeable future.
My question is in the price of diesel and its future, as I'm currently living in Melbourne with prices well over $2.00 a L.. I'm worried with emission laws cracking down it just won't be a viable living arrangement in the future. How high will the prices go or will they even ban diesel cars... Thoughts?
 

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They won’t ban diesel cars. They might encourage us to “upgrade” to green power but it’s unconstitutional to slap a blanket ban on old technology. An example is that you can still register and drive pre-seatbelt era cars without retro fitting seatbelts.


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Plus there's not going to be that many of us around to worry about. Very few people will choose to drive a TD42, ZD30 or whatever on a regular basis as the price of diesel increases. They'll be like the pre-seatbelt cars, or steam trains -- for special occasions.
 

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Y2KGUII ZD Wgn
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I'm a firm believer that we will be driving our diesel patrols for many years to come. I don't see the price of diesel staying where it is for a long time, it may well go up more yet, but it will come down.
My 2 cents worth through the eye's of an optimist.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
For the enjoyment I get out of driving my vehicle I just say it is what it is!!! Owning an enjoyable vehicle is always gonna come at a cost. They want everyone to get electric but I'm not selling my soul to that boring devil ever!!!!
I think you said it daym right! 'It is what it is' ... I'm just thinking in cost to reliability ratio, is it worth the money owning a heavy duty diesel (which is super reliable) when the price for fuel rises too high? Looking as in Europe places are banning diesel right? I'm 23 so thinking far future owning something in the long run.
But just accept and go with it
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I'm a firm believer that we will be driving our diesel patrols for many years to come. I don't see the price of diesel staying where it is for a long time, it may well go up more yet, but it will come down.
My 2 cents worth through the eye's of an optimist.
I agree
I think the price will go down but ****s getting crazy around the world and don't know what the future holds with climite laws cranking down.. But au being such heavy mining industry I can't see them banning diesel or even the production diesel cars. The new landcruiser 300 being a V6 & patrol being petrol says something about the future.?
 

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Rogue
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The price of diesel isn't going down anytime soon. Production can't really ramp up and there isn't any exploration going on to bring cheaper sources online as no one will fund it.

I'm moving on from diesel as new car diesel tech is crap, if I had an existing older diesel that suited, I'd stick with it. Buying new, buy Petrol I reckon
 

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nissan
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For the enjoyment I get out of driving my vehicle I just say it is what it is!!! Owning an enjoyable vehicle is always gonna come at a cost. They want everyone to get electric but I'm not selling my soul to that boring devil ever!!!!
Interesting you say EV is boring ?, personally id say the opposite, and sell my soul to get "into" some of the off road EVs starting to come out in the states now, from what ive been seeing and whats coming, id easy choose one over a combustion engine 4x4, i think EVs are better in almost every way i can think of except range, and the range and charge options are starting to get pretty good now.


The price of diesel isn't going down anytime soon. Production can't really ramp up and there isn't any exploration going on to bring cheaper sources online as no one will fund it.

I'm moving on from diesel as new car diesel tech is crap, if I had an existing older diesel that suited, I'd stick with it. Buying new, buy Petrol I reckon
I agree 100%, although now, (as i mentioned above) the near future of off road EVs has really captured my interest.

Watch this video ,it may help explain what may be going on with Fuel prices
 

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I can't see them converting Ships and Airplanes to an alternative fuel source anytime soon.
since HFO and Avgas are both derived from the distillation of crude along with diesel. petrol and many other distillates,
the production of diesel will continue for a long time.

Not to mention the armed forces reliance on fosssil fuel worldwide. If they need it, they will have it.

For us running a diesel 4wd, it's comes down to supply and demand,
so the more people that switch to electric should lessen the demand on diesel and enrichen the supply.
after all they will still be producing X amount of diesel as a byproduct from getting all the HFO and all the kero that is required globally.
 

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Interesting you say EV is boring ?, personally id say the opposite, and sell my soul to get "into" some of the off road EVs starting to come out in the states now, from what ive been seeing and whats coming, id easy choose one over a combustion engine 4x4, i think EVs are better in almost every way i can think of except range, and the range and charge options are starting to get pretty good now.




I agree 100%, although now, (as i mentioned above) the near future of off road EVs has really captured my interest.

Watch this video ,it may help explain what may be going on with Fuel prices
No doubt in the future we will see some cool things ev wise with 4x4s but I think I will always crave the noises, mechanical feel, manual gearbox and all the rattles clunks and bad smells these older 4x4s have is more what I'm getting at, I don't hate the thought of ev's it's just personally something that doesn't appeal to me!!
 

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Rogue
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Interesting you say EV is boring ?, personally id say the opposite, and sell my soul to get "into" some of the off road EVs starting to come out in the states now, from what ive been seeing and whats coming, id easy choose one over a combustion engine 4x4, i think EVs are better in almost every way i can think of except range, and the range and charge options are starting to get pretty good now.

I agree 100%, although now, (as i mentioned above) the near future of off road EVs has really captured my interest.

Watch this video ,it may help explain what may be going on with Fuel prices
I'm keen for a Rivian R1S if they become available in Aus. It would suit maybe 60-80% of my driving. I do engineering and project management in regional Vic and NSW and my business partner has a Telsa Model S that meets most of his needs (other than when he needs a 4x4).

I can't see them converting Ships and Airplanes to an alternative fuel source anytime soon.
since HFO and Avgas are both derived from the distillation of crude along with diesel. petrol and many other distillates,
the production of diesel will continue for a long time.

Not to mention the armed forces reliance on fosssil fuel worldwide. If they need it, they will have it.

For us running a diesel 4wd, it's comes down to supply and demand,
so the more people that switch to electric should lessen the demand on diesel and enrichen the supply.
after all they will still be producing X amount of diesel as a byproduct from getting all the HFO and all the kero that is required globally.
All major auto, defence forces, heavy equipment/truck manufacturers, diesel engineer producers, aerospace and shipbuilding companies are now developing alternative propulsion energy systems. Whether it be hydrogen, anhydrous ammonia, methane, synthetic fuel, BESS, or nuclear. LNG is even at major risk of discontinuing within 30-years.

With UK exiting fossil fuel by 2030 and Jap not far behind, Aus, SA, India and Thai will be the only major markets left with ICE vehicles in RHD. We'll all have to drive dual cab utes as that is really the only shared platform between the countries.

It will only be the plastics/petrochem industry that keep fossils required and how long that lasts isn't looking to be many decades either.
 
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I'm not convinced things are going to move as fast as is projected.
 

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Rogue
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I'm not convinced things are going to move as fast as is projected.
I don't think they'll be as fast as projected either, I think it'll be faster.

All the capital markets are trying to eliminate their risk of being exposed to declining markets. The bonus for them doing so is also being first to market as investors of new companies, sectors, supply chains, etc. It's now the investors and bankers whom are driving the change as they're trying to make money/equity on the disruptive potential of the transition. The investment lead time on fossils means cutting investment now. Investing in fossils now is flogging a dead horse. Only state-owned bodies in some developing nations are actually investing in maintaining a fossil fuel capacity.
 

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I don't know situation in AU but aren't petrol prices going up same as diesel?

Regarding EV, I have only one thing against them. The problem is not that there are no chargers in wilderness, the problem is that they will build them and it won't be wilderness anymore.
 

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I don't think they'll be as fast as projected either, I think it'll be faster.

All the capital markets are trying to eliminate their risk of being exposed to declining markets. The bonus for them doing so is also being first to market as investors of new companies, sectors, supply chains, etc. It's now the investors and bankers whom are driving the change as they're trying to make money/equity on the disruptive potential of the transition. The investment lead time on fossils means cutting investment now. Investing in fossils now is flogging a dead horse. Only state-owned bodies in some developing nations are actually investing in maintaining a fossil fuel capacity.
I've been listening to experts for many years, housing market to crash due to covid, Himalayan glaciers to melt around 2014, AU to be in continuous drought, Global recession if Trump was elected, maybe 5 people would buy a home computer, online shopping to be a flop, Y2K bug to cause planes to fall out of the sky, there is a massive list. No one really knows what the future brings (oh, except weather, we know what it will be like in 100 years, it's tomorrow we have issues with.
 

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No doubt in the future we will see some cool things ev wise with 4x4s but I think I will always crave the noises, mechanical feel, manual gearbox and all the rattles clunks and bad smells these older 4x4s have is more what I'm getting at, I don't hate the thought of ev's it's just personally something that doesn't appeal to me!!
Yes they certainly won't be for everyone, and i understand, i hated the thought of loosing a mechanical Hi/Low range lever when moving into a Y62, all replaced by a switch, but having no other option on a late model 4X4 ,you are forced into it sooner or later if you want a newer car.

I mentioned to someone that i think i might like a EV 4X4, and they instantly went off on the old, they are not as planet friendly as you think, produce more pollutants in manufacture, powered by coal, batteries hard to recycle etc....., i replied, i was honestly not even considering the environment one bit, i liked just them, as the more i found out about EVs, the more i realized some are a far superior 4x4 for almost everything i do.



I'm keen for a Rivian R1S if they become available in Aus. It would suit maybe 60-80% of my driving. I do engineering and project management in regional Vic and NSW and my business partner has a Telsa Model S that meets most of his needs (other than when he needs a 4x4).
Yes ive been watching Rivian R1S (and R1T), and yeh i definitely rate them, i really like the look of the Hummer EV, but its kinda like with Jeeps, i like em, but never want to own one ,but id certainly own a Rivian, although the Cybertruck is the one that im hanging to see, i don't like utes for many reasons, but mostly because of the lack of seating they are not practical for my family, CT will have 6 seats, and a whole bunch of incredeble features, it threatens to blow everything out of the water, well, if they can ever put them into production (lol)



I don't think they'll be as fast as projected either, I think it'll be faster.
Personally i agree, its already happening, the way i see things, it would appear Tesla has shown car manufactures the way, seems they have all see the light, and are now all frantically trying to catch up, soooo many well known brands are investing heavily in EVs right now, many manufactures have also said they will no longer invest in the development of new internal combustion engines.

When oil companies like Shell say, they plan to roll out 500,000 EV Charging points in the USA by 2025, you know they have seen where the future money is at, so many countries are getting on board with EVs, it wont matter what Australians think, we wont have much of a choice, as car manufactures will produce what the majority world market wants and buys, Australia has never had much leverage when it comes to overseas vehicle design, we're just that hot country they use to test the cooling systems out.....and lets face it, if we had it our way, "every" 4x4 would be a V8 Turbo Deisel (lol)
 

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Rogue
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When is it no longer speculation by experts, but is happening though? As far as I can see and experience as a current participant in the infrastructure planning and delivery sector, changes are being made at the private industry and consumer level already. We have electric Hino trucks driving around town, I see more trucks carrying Telsa Model 3s than anything other than Dodge Rams down the Hume Highway haha. Fleet buyers are not buying petrol and diesel sedans, it's all hybrid and has been for 5-years, now going all electric. All major miners are de-carbonising their fleets and driving their own technology investment programs. Manufacturing is moving on from gas heating and using their own generated electricity or establishing heat sharing agreements from heat byproduct producing industries. Wastewater treatment plants around the country are being converted into powerplants to generate hydrogen for export and oxygen for treatment process efficiency.

Here is the national energy market mix of electricity source consumption through the grid (which doesn't include self-consumption, also booming there), trajectory only going one way, particularly with the private and public funding already occurring. Gas isn't far off either. Domestic connections occurring, but consumption of gas going down.
Product Rectangle Slope Plot Font


If you close your eyes you see nothing. It really doesn't matter what you think is happening, it is happening.
 

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I won't buy a diesel or petrol car for my business when I sold off my current Patrol. It will be likely a hybrid. I won't go full ev either as it will take a long time of charging stations to spread. I am sure there will be a time where fuel stations also have a charging station, but still the charging times are high.

Diesel and petrol are not going to die anytime soon. But their currency will slowly go down with time.
With a bit of government funding similar to solar panels I am sure the ev/hybrid will take over sooner than later.
 

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Regarding EV, I have only one thing against them. The problem is not that there are no chargers in wilderness, the problem is that they will build them and it won't be wilderness anymore.
While its not all covered yet, there are quite a few chargers around AU, to give your EV pretty good exploring range, both to and from a lot of wilderness (see map) and while some are not incredibly fast chargers, they are popping up more and more, and EV range is improving, its far from as convenient as Fossil Fuels, but there is even overnight EV charging available on Fraser Island, and Holiday Homes to rent at Noosa North Shore with EV Chargers, so its getting there.

Some may in fact argue, the wilderness may actually be a nicer place "without" the pollution of fumes and noise from a ICE ?

Property Ecoregion Map World Natural environment
 
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